The indirect effect is omitted variable bias. A cautionary note on the theoretical interpretation of products-of-coefficients in mediation analyses

This paper intends to remind communication scientists that the indirect effect as estimated in mediation analyses is a statistical synonym for omitted variable bias (i.e. confounding or suppression). simple fact questions interpretability of statistically significant ‘indirect effects’ when using observational data: social reality, all variables correlate with each other some extent – so-called ‘crud factor’ which means and at population level are virtually guaranteed regardless actual involved model. As result, there can be no inferential link between observation theoretical claim mediation. Through this argument, hopes add existing warnings on cultivate more critical interpretation science.